← Dota2 英雄强度榜Dota2 后期英雄与前期英雄每个英雄所在队伍的胜率如何随对局时长变化:34 分钟内结束的天梯对局 vs 超过 47 分钟的对局,覆盖全部 127 名英雄,来自 Batru 校准过的时长模型。
美杜莎是最偏后期的 Dota2 英雄:在超过 47 分钟才结束的天梯对局中,有美杜莎的一方胜率 58.3%,而在 34 分钟内结束的对局中为 38.0%(+20.3 个百分点);美杜莎的对局有 27% 打到 47 分钟以上。最偏前期的是育母蜘蛛:34 分钟内结束的对局胜率 57.0%,47 分钟以上为 45.4%;其对局有 38% 在 34 分钟内结束。
查看你的阵容的时长胜率曲线 → 后期英雄排行从 34 分钟内结束的对局到 47 分钟以上的对局,胜率上升最多。
美杜莎38.0% → 58.3% +20.3虚空假面38.5% → 56.7% +18.2风暴之灵37.8% → 54.9% +17.1独行德鲁伊42.5% → 58.4% +15.9兽40.5% → 55.1% +14.6末日使者40.4% → 52.2% +11.8修补匠39.7% → 50.3% +10.6炼金术士42.4% → 52.9% +10.6半人马战行者43.4% → 53.8% +10.5幻影长矛手46.7% → 56.8% +10.2前期英雄排行从 34 分钟内结束的对局到 47 分钟以上的对局,胜率下降最多。
育母蜘蛛57.0% → 45.4% −11.6狼人55.9% → 44.4% −11.5狙击手58.6% → 47.7% −10.9死亡先知55.5% → 44.7% −10.8不朽尸王57.0% → 47.1% −9.9光之守卫55.3% → 46.8% −8.5帕格纳55.7% → 47.2% −8.5戴泽55.1% → 47.3% −7.8冥界亚龙54.0% → 46.2% −7.8术士55.0% → 47.9% −7.1全部 127 名英雄按对局时长英雄所在队伍在各时长区间结束的天梯对局中的胜率(模型估计,英雄 vs 平均水平队伍)。最后一列:该英雄对局落在最短 / 最长区间的比例。点击列标题可排序。
# 英雄 曲线<34 分钟 34–40 40–47 47+ 分钟 后期优势 短局 / 长局 1美杜莎38.0%46.5%54.3%58.3%+20.322% / 27%2虚空假面38.5%48.0%55.0%56.7%+18.223% / 26%3风暴之灵37.8%44.2%50.6%54.9%+17.125% / 25%4独行德鲁伊42.5%46.0%52.6%58.4%+15.929% / 23%5兽40.5%47.2%52.7%55.1%+14.624% / 25%6末日使者40.4%46.3%50.4%52.2%+11.823% / 27%7修补匠39.7%46.3%49.8%50.3%+10.624% / 26%8炼金术士42.4%48.6%52.0%52.9%+10.626% / 23%9半人马战行者43.4%49.6%53.2%53.8%+10.526% / 23%10幻影长矛手46.7%51.4%55.8%56.8%+10.225% / 24%11暗影恶魔40.1%45.0%48.5%50.2%+10.125% / 25%12幽鬼46.2%54.0%57.8%56.0%+9.820% / 29%13沙王42.8%48.7%51.9%52.0%+9.321% / 29%14幻影刺客44.4%51.6%54.6%53.2%+8.826% / 23%15伐木机40.1%45.6%48.4%48.8%+8.726% / 24%16帕克42.6%45.4%48.5%51.3%+8.725% / 24%17莱恩43.5%48.4%51.5%52.0%+8.623% / 26%18拉席克45.4%48.4%51.3%53.3%+8.027% / 23%19娜迦海妖44.6%50.3%53.3%52.5%+7.926% / 24%20斯拉达45.2%50.4%52.8%52.9%+7.725% / 24%21米拉娜46.6%51.0%53.7%54.1%+7.524% / 25%22蝙蝠骑士41.9%46.3%48.6%49.3%+7.428% / 23%23宙斯46.1%49.9%52.7%53.4%+7.321% / 28%24变体精灵44.4%47.2%49.7%51.5%+7.129% / 20%25上古巨神44.8%50.1%52.4%51.9%+7.127% / 26%26天穹守望者47.5%49.6%52.5%54.4%+6.928% / 23%27齐天大圣43.0%43.8%46.2%49.6%+6.526% / 24%28琼英碧灵44.6%47.0%49.3%50.9%+6.324% / 27%29黑暗贤者45.3%49.6%51.6%51.3%+5.926% / 24%30谜团46.9%48.8%50.9%52.5%+5.625% / 26%31祸乱之源45.9%49.3%51.2%51.4%+5.525% / 24%32痛苦女王44.2%47.0%48.9%49.6%+5.422% / 27%33玛尔斯43.7%46.1%47.7%48.9%+5.325% / 25%34沉默术士48.2%50.1%51.9%53.0%+4.823% / 26%35敌法师47.1%49.4%51.0%51.6%+4.425% / 24%36远古冰魄47.9%50.7%52.3%52.3%+4.320% / 30%37编织者46.5%45.4%46.6%50.7%+4.223% / 27%38天涯墨客48.4%52.1%53.3%52.4%+4.025% / 25%39潮汐猎人47.8%51.3%52.4%51.8%+4.025% / 25%40陈44.5%45.5%46.9%48.3%+3.837% / 18%41百戏大王46.7%48.9%50.0%49.9%+3.224% / 25%42朗戈46.6%48.0%48.8%49.4%+2.829% / 22%43石鳞剑士46.2%47.5%48.1%48.5%+2.325% / 25%44祈求者48.0%51.2%51.9%50.3%+2.324% / 26%45大地之灵47.9%49.8%50.4%49.9%+2.026% / 24%46电炎绝手48.9%50.0%50.6%50.6%+1.724% / 25%47矮人直升机45.4%44.6%45.1%47.1%+1.726% / 24%48噬魂鬼50.1%54.6%54.2%51.6%+1.625% / 23%49钢背兽48.2%50.2%50.4%49.6%+1.522% / 27%50巫妖50.7%52.5%53.3%52.0%+1.422% / 27%51邪影芳灵47.8%48.6%48.9%49.0%+1.124% / 26%52杰奇洛48.8%47.0%47.4%49.7%+0.924% / 26%53小小44.9%45.4%45.1%45.6%+0.725% / 25%54神谕者49.2%50.6%50.4%49.3%+0.229% / 22%55发条技师48.8%48.5%48.5%48.7%−0.124% / 26%56虚无之灵49.2%50.1%49.8%49.2%−0.127% / 23%57主宰51.6%52.7%52.5%51.4%−0.126% / 22%58斯拉克51.2%50.2%50.0%50.9%−0.225% / 25%59巨魔战将51.2%52.2%51.9%51.0%−0.228% / 23%60卓尔游侠49.7%47.6%47.5%49.4%−0.322% / 28%61巨牙海民48.1%48.7%48.4%47.8%−0.328% / 22%62赏金猎人51.3%53.0%52.7%50.8%−0.528% / 21%63司夜刺客51.8%53.2%52.9%51.2%−0.623% / 26%64水晶室女51.8%52.2%52.1%51.2%−0.624% / 25%65龙骑士51.3%50.9%50.5%50.5%−0.827% / 23%66熊战士49.0%47.8%47.1%47.9%−1.125% / 25%67森海飞霞49.0%48.1%47.6%48.0%−1.123% / 26%68圣堂刺客47.9%44.7%44.4%46.8%−1.128% / 23%69斧王51.5%52.5%52.0%50.2%−1.322% / 28%70力丸53.0%53.4%52.6%51.6%−1.323% / 27%71魅惑魔女49.0%49.0%48.4%47.6%−1.427% / 24%72全能骑士50.8%50.1%49.5%49.3%−1.529% / 22%73殁境神蚀者52.0%52.8%52.2%50.4%−1.626% / 24%74马格纳斯50.7%48.8%48.2%48.9%−1.825% / 24%75干扰者51.2%50.7%50.0%49.3%−1.924% / 25%76酒仙50.7%52.3%51.1%48.7%−1.929% / 23%77莉娜50.1%48.5%47.8%48.0%−2.023% / 26%78孽主51.5%49.2%48.4%49.4%−2.123% / 26%79自然先知47.2%41.7%40.7%44.9%−2.425% / 25%80复仇之魂53.5%53.6%52.9%51.1%−2.426% / 23%81树精卫士50.1%48.6%47.8%47.6%−2.527% / 23%82天怒法师51.9%50.3%49.2%49.2%−2.722% / 27%83巫医53.3%52.7%51.8%50.4%−2.923% / 26%84灰烬之灵50.7%49.3%48.1%47.8%−2.927% / 23%85影魔49.3%46.2%45.4%46.4%−2.925% / 25%86凯48.2%46.1%44.7%45.3%−3.026% / 24%87亚巴顿52.2%52.0%50.8%49.2%−3.028% / 22%88恐怖利刃49.3%47.9%46.7%45.9%−3.329% / 22%89裂魂人53.6%52.3%51.1%50.2%−3.424% / 25%90暗影萨满53.6%52.6%51.3%50.0%−3.524% / 25%91撼地者52.5%51.1%49.8%48.9%−3.522% / 27%92兽王49.6%45.5%44.5%46.0%−3.629% / 23%93暗夜魔王53.7%53.0%51.0%50.0%−3.727% / 22%94食人魔魔法师53.0%51.2%50.0%49.2%−3.824% / 24%95米波53.3%51.4%50.3%49.5%−3.836% / 16%96克林克兹52.8%49.4%47.6%48.8%−4.023% / 27%97拉比克53.1%49.6%48.0%48.6%−4.523% / 25%98瘟疫法师54.2%52.1%50.6%49.7%−4.525% / 24%99冥魂大帝56.0%56.0%54.0%51.4%−4.626% / 24%100艾欧52.1%49.3%47.8%47.3%−4.733% / 19%101寒冬飞龙52.7%50.0%48.4%48.0%−4.725% / 25%102帕吉54.2%51.3%49.7%49.4%−4.824% / 24%103昆卡53.0%49.5%47.7%48.1%−4.923% / 28%104血魔54.1%53.5%51.3%49.1%−5.023% / 27%105雷泽53.4%50.4%48.4%48.3%−5.123% / 26%106剧毒术士51.5%48.3%46.4%46.4%−5.122% / 27%107风行者52.2%48.5%46.7%47.1%−5.123% / 26%108玛西52.4%49.5%47.7%47.1%−5.329% / 22%109工程师54.2%52.5%50.6%48.8%−5.321% / 31%110破晓辰星55.1%52.5%50.5%49.4%−5.727% / 22%111露娜53.8%50.9%48.6%47.9%−5.929% / 21%112斯温53.9%52.7%50.1%47.9%−6.126% / 23%113混沌骑士54.8%51.6%49.4%48.5%−6.327% / 23%114维萨吉54.7%50.7%48.8%48.4%−6.335% / 18%115哈斯卡50.9%46.0%44.2%44.6%−6.328% / 22%116凤凰54.9%52.1%49.8%48.4%−6.624% / 25%117军团指挥官55.9%54.6%51.8%49.2%−6.724% / 24%118术士55.0%50.0%47.6%47.9%−7.125% / 25%119冥界亚龙54.0%49.2%46.2%46.2%−7.821% / 28%120戴泽55.1%51.0%48.4%47.3%−7.828% / 22%121帕格纳55.7%49.6%47.0%47.2%−8.527% / 24%122光之守卫55.3%49.4%46.6%46.8%−8.526% / 24%123不朽尸王57.0%51.3%48.0%47.1%−9.925% / 24%124死亡先知55.5%48.4%44.8%44.7%−10.826% / 25%125狙击手58.6%50.9%47.1%47.7%−10.922% / 29%126狼人55.9%45.3%42.6%44.4%−11.536% / 19%127育母蜘蛛57.0%45.6%43.4%45.4%−11.638% / 17%后期与前期双英雄组合同队双英雄组合,全部 8,001 种组合按同样方法计算。榜单大多由单英雄最强者组合而成——请理解为「这两个英雄一起时的倾向」,而不是另一种配合结论。
最偏后期的组合炼金术士 + 美杜莎26.3% → 64.9% +38.6虚空假面 + 美杜莎26.9% → 63.6% +36.6风暴之灵 + 美杜莎28.2% → 63.8% +35.6虚空假面 + 炼金术士29.9% → 64.4% +34.5风暴之灵 + 虚空假面26.8% → 61.1% +34.3美杜莎 + 兽28.7% → 63.0% +34.3独行德鲁伊 + 美杜莎30.2% → 64.4% +34.2风暴之灵 + 独行德鲁伊30.7% → 63.7% +33.1莱恩 + 美杜莎29.7% → 61.8% +32.1虚空假面 + 兽29.6% → 61.7% +32.1最偏前期的组合狙击手 + 不朽尸王66.5% → 44.1% −22.4狼人 + 不朽尸王61.8% → 40.0% −21.8狙击手 + 帕格纳65.2% → 43.8% −21.4狙击手 + 死亡先知62.5% → 42.2% −20.3狙击手 + 戴泽64.0% → 43.9% −20.2育母蜘蛛 + 不朽尸王63.2% → 43.0% −20.2狼人 + 拉比克61.7% → 41.6% −20.2狙击手 + 狼人61.6% → 41.6% −20.0戴泽 + 不朽尸王63.3% → 43.6% −19.7育母蜘蛛 + 工程师64.1% → 44.4% −19.7如何解读这些数字这些是条件胜率:在恰好于某个时长结束的天梯对局中,英雄所在队伍赢了多少。它描述的是这类对局,而不是打法建议。对局时长是比赛的结果而不是可选择的:领先的一方通常会更早结束比赛,所以后期胜率高并不意味着拖长比赛就能赢。
区间胜率一定要和对局落在该区间的比例一起看:全部对局在四个区间的分布为 <34 分钟 24% · 34–40 24% · 40–47 26% · 47+ 分钟 25%,多数单个英雄只会让这个分布变化几个百分点。
模型:Batru Dota2 时长模型(v_dur_20261005),在最近两个大版本的天梯对局上训练的 Transformer。每个英雄单独放入一方、其余九个位置未知,分别在天辉和夜魇各算一次再取平均,以抵消天辉方的固有优势。时长区间取训练集四分位:<34 分钟、34–40、40–47、47+ 分钟。后期优势 = 最长区间胜率 − 最短区间胜率。
已在模型从未见过的 3,636,241 场留出对局上检验:按预测的后期优势均分为五组,实际后期优势从 −39.5 个百分点单调上升到 +24.8 个百分点,每组与预测相差约 1 个百分点以内。各区间校准误差(ECE)为 0.0008–0.0025。
常见问题4 个问题Dota2 哪些英雄是最强的后期英雄?按 Batru 时长模型,在长局中胜率提升最多的英雄是:美杜莎(+20.3个百分点)、虚空假面(+18.2个百分点)、风暴之灵(+17.1个百分点)、独行德鲁伊(+15.9个百分点)、兽(+14.6个百分点)。美杜莎:47 分钟以上结束的对局胜率 58.3%,34 分钟内结束的对局为 38.0%;美杜莎的对局有 27% 打到 47 分钟以上。Dota2 哪些英雄前期最强?相对长局、在短局中表现最好的英雄是:育母蜘蛛(−11.6个百分点)、狼人(−11.5个百分点)、狙击手(−10.9个百分点)、死亡先知(−10.8个百分点)、不朽尸王(−9.9个百分点)。育母蜘蛛:34 分钟内结束的对局胜率 57.0%,47 分钟以上为 45.4%;育母蜘蛛的对局有 38% 在 34 分钟内结束。选了后期英雄就应该拖后期吗?不是——这些数字并不这么说。它们是条件胜率:在恰好于某个时长结束的对局中,英雄所在队伍赢了多少。对局时长是比赛的结果而不是手段:领先的一方通常会更早结束比赛。请用它来了解英雄的特点,而不是当作拖时间的计划。后期优势是怎么算的?英雄所在队伍在 47 分钟以上对局的胜率,减去在 34 分钟内对局的胜率;来自 Batru 时长模型,英雄单独放入一方、两侧取平均。在 3,636,241 场留出对局上,模型判为最偏后期的那组对局实际后期优势为 +24.8 个百分点,最偏前期的一组为 −39.5 个百分点。把这页数据带进 BP
查看你的阵容的时长胜率曲线在阵容预测器里加入已知的英雄,即可得到这套阵容的校准胜率,以及胜率随对局时长的变化。阵容不完整也可以。
打开胜率预测器 更多预测器:BP 模拟器Plus · 分路模型Pro · 战队模型对手侦察Batru Dota2 时长模型(v_dur_20261005)的模型估计,不是实时比赛统计。数据更新于 2026年10月5日。